基于多源数据的国土空间高质量利用评价思路

研究目的：新时代国土空间规划背景下，提出利用多源数据评价国土空间高质量利用的思路，为辅助编制高质量的国土空间规划提供支撑。研究方法：文献分析法、归纳演绎法。研究结果：在国土空间规划新趋势下，以国土空间高质量利用内涵为引导，提出生态空间、农业空间和城镇空间的高质量利用目标与评价维度，并构建了基于多源数据的国土空间高质量利用的评价方法框架。研究结论：国土空间高质量利用评价应在统筹各类空间不同目标间关系的基础上，结合研究和实践需要，因地制宜进行评价，进而形成各空间的发展合力，推进国土空间的高质量利用。     

Healthcare resource utilization by patients with treatment-refractory myasthenia gravis in England

Aims: To examine healthcare resource utilization associated with refractory myasthenia gravis (MG) in England.

Materials and methods: This was a retrospective cohort study of linked data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink and the Hospital Episode Statistics database collected between 1997 and 2016. Included patients were ≥18?years of age at the index MG diagnosis. Patients with refractory MG were identified using an algorithm based on treatments received. Healthcare resource utilization since the index date was compared between refractory and non-refractory cohorts.

Results: The study included 1149 patients with MG, of whom 66 (5.7%) were refractory. Sex and age at diagnosis did not significantly differ between the refractory and non-refractory cohorts. Rates of healthcare resource utilization per person-year were significantly higher (p?p?Limitations: The algorithm for identifying refractory patients did not include clinical criteria. Also, treatments administered in hospitals or by specialists were not available in the databases.

Conclusions: Patients in England with refractory MG more often visit healthcare providers, are hospitalized and visit an emergency room than patients with non-refractory MG.     

Value for money in energy efficiency retrofits in Ireland: grant provider and grant recipients

The Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI) administers the Better Energy Homes scheme to provide a financial incentive for home owners to engage in energy efficiency retrofits. This study analyses data from the scheme and Building Energy Rating data for participants to the scheme to examine the value for money achieved by households. In addition, this research identifies which retrofit combinations provide greatest value for money, in terms of energy efficiency gains, for the grant provider. We utilize an error-in-variables approach to model the variation in benefits accruing to households of varying characteristics. We find that household and grant provider surplus can be maximized in the short term by retrofitting less energy efficient and larger homes, timber or steel frame homes and houses rather and apartments. The types of retrofits leading to the greatest surplus for both household and grant provider include cavity wall insulation paired with either a boiler with heating controls or heating controls only retrofit.     

能源系统动力学应用研究综述

对系统动力学理论在国内外的发展过程以及其在不同领域的广泛应用进行研究,概括了能源系统动力学的实质是系统动力学理论与SD模型在分析各类能源问题的实证研究与应用,报告了能源系统动力学国内外研究现状,总结了系统动力学在能源领域的应用以及其对环境保护、经济发展、社会进步等方面的贡献,并在此基础上展望了能源系统动力学在大数据时代与数据挖掘及GIS等理论结合研究的方向.     

能源碳排放与环境污染空间效应研究——基于能源强度与技术进步视角的空间杜宾计量模型

本文基于空间环境库兹涅茨曲线理论探讨经济发展约束下能源强度和技术进步对大气环境的空间效应作用机理，采用探索性空间分析工具、经典最小二乘估计（OLS）、空间滞后模型（SLM）、空间误差模型（SEM）和空间杜宾--可拓展随机性环境影响评估模型（Spatial Durbin-STIRPAT Models）探索能源碳排放与大气环境污染的空间格局和空间溢出效应。实证估计结果表明，能源碳排放与空气环境污染在空间分布上表现出空间正相关性和空间集聚效应；能源强度与技术进步对能源碳排放与大气环境的空间溢出效应显著。在此基础上提出了相应的政策建议。     

传统能源及碳交易价格与新能源股价——基于VAR和CAPM-GARCH模型的分析

文章构建VAR模型和CAPM-GARCH模型,分析检验了2010年7月初至2013年底期间传统能源和碳排放权交易价格对国内新能源上市公司股价波动的影响及新能源股票收益率的波动特点,研究发现:国内煤价对新能源公司股价有显著的正向影响,而国际油价的影响不显著;碳排放权交易价格也是引起新能源投资价值从而上市公司股价变动的重要因素;新能源公司股价指数对高科技股价指数并不敏感,反映出国内新能源上市公司科技含量不足,资本市场关注更多的是新能源的概念而非技术优势;国内新能源股票整体的系统风险在1.125~1.131之间,利好消息比利空消息能引起新能源股票收益率更大的波动。     

威海市海洋渔业资源可持续利用评价研究

全面收集整理了2007-2015年威海市渔业资源、经济和社会统计数据,在分析海洋渔业资源特点基础上,利用层次分析法原理构建了威海市海洋渔业资源可持续利用评价指标体系,该指标体系包括资源环境子系统、社会子系统和经济子系统3个层次的24个指标,采用层次分析法确定各指标的权重,应用层次灰色综合评价模型首次定量评估了2007-2015年威海市海洋渔业资源可持续利用水平。结果表明:2007年,威海市海洋渔业资源可持续利用综合评价值为0.45,2008年,评价值降至近9年的最低值0.15,仅为2007年的33.2%,2009年评价值回升到0.48,2010年,再次下降到较低的水平0.17,仅为2009年的35.9%,2010-2014年评价值一直维持在极低的水平,海洋渔业资源可持续利用水平一直处于较低的状态,2015年,评价值达到最大值0.82,是最低值的5.54倍,海洋渔业资源可持续利用水平明显提高。     

A barrier options approach to modeling project failure: The case of hydrogen fuel infrastructure

Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have the potential to contribute to a sustainable transport system with zero tailpipe emissions. This requires the construction of a network of fuel stations, a long-term, expensive and highly uncertain investment. We contribute to the literature by including a knock-out barrier option in an n-fold compound real option model to take account of immediate project failure in a multi-stage sequential investment project. Our model allows to explicitly incorporate the default possibility of large-scale energy infrastructure projects. In our case study of hydrogen infrastructure development, we find that even for the least conservative valuation method no profitable business case can be made for the development of hydrogen as a sustainable transportation mode. However, we do provide some suggestive scenarios that plausible tax schedules can be designed to overcome the starting problems for hydrogen infrastructure development.     

核电重启后我国核电建设前景分析

随着社会发展和生态环境日益恶化,清洁能源的地位日益凸现。核电是高效、稳定的清洁能源,是世界能源和电力发展不可或缺的一部分。本文综合分析了核电能源的竞争力,我国核电发展现状,以及核电发展对我国能源结构调整的重要性。随着今年两会报告中明确开工建设一批核电项目,我国核电建设步入实质性重启阶段,在此基础上本文最后对我国核电发展规模进行展望。     

我国新能源汽车产业破坏性创新的政策支持研究

提高新能源汽车产业创新水平、将新能源汽车产业置于国民经济战略性新兴产业的地位予以支持已成为世界大国博弈的重要命题.文章将破坏性创新理论用于指导我国的新能源汽车产业政策,在公共科技政策分析的基本政策工具框架下,采用内容分析法分析了2009年至今我国新能源汽车产业创新的政策支持体系;对特斯拉汽车成功进行破坏性创新的案例及对我国的启示作了实证研究,进而提出我国新能源汽车产业破坏性创新的政策建议.